Case Study Sales with Predictive PPC
How we leveraged prediction modeling and inventory-aware PPC to scale sales for a leading infant formula brand.
22%
Average ACoS maintained (~4.5x ROAS)
+67%
Underperforming SKU sales
35%
Ad spend to top SKUs
The Client
A household name in U.S. infant formula managing high-volume SKU inventory and competitive markets.
The client is a household name in the infant formula category, holding a top-tier market position alongside brands like Similac in the United States. With approximately $900M in annual revenue, the enterprise is a trusted supplier of infant nutrition, serving millions of families through major retail chains and rapidly expanding digital e-commerce channels.
In the baby food and nutrition industry, product availability and customer trust are paramount. Buyers expect consistent access to specific formula variations (such as organic, lactose-free, or hypoallergenic formulas), and supply chain hiccups can quickly lead to customer churn. E-commerce platforms are critical for driving subscription-based repeat purchases, making paid acquisition channels highly valuable.
However, coordinating high-volume digital advertising budgets with warehouse stock levels is a major challenge. The brand needed a way to align their paid search and social campaigns with their supply chain, ensuring ad spend went toward clearing inventory surpluses rather than bidding on low-stock items.
The Challenge
A supply chain disconnect in paid advertising campaigns.
At a revenue scale of $900M, minor supply chain inefficiencies can quickly lead to high warehouse storage costs and lost margins. The client was experiencing highly uneven sell-through rates across their product variations, with some formulas selling out instantly while other high-margin SKUs sat in distribution centers.
Despite their large media budget, their PPC campaigns operated independently of their supply chain. The brand had no framework to adjust ad bidding based on inventory levels, meaning they were paying for traffic to low-stock or out-of-stock items, while surplus SKUs received no promotional support. Facing intense competition from Similac and low-cost store brands, they needed to scale their e-commerce sales while maintaining a highly efficient 3x-4x ROAS to protect their margins.
$900M
Annual revenue of the U.S. infant formula brand
3x-4x
Target ROAS required to maintain paid media viability
6%
Ad budget historically allocated to high-probability, overstocked SKUs
What our audit found
Exposing the gap between ad spend and warehouse supply.
We conducted a forensic analysis of the client's historical ad spend, product sales velocity, and warehouse inventory levels. The diagnostic revealed a major misalignment: over 90% of their digital advertising budget was spent on a few top-performing flagship formulas. This spend was driven by automated bidding algorithms that naturally favored high-traffic pages, regardless of whether those products were running low on stock.
As a result, high-margin, overstocked SKUs were neglected by search algorithms. Additionally, the creative assets used in campaigns were generic, brand-level ads rather than SKU-specific promotions. When parents searched for specific nutrition types, they saw generic ads, leading to lower CTRs and missed sales opportunities.
Ad spend heavily concentrated on high-demand, low-stock formulas.
Bid systems lacked automated rules to adjust spend based on inventory.
Generic creative assets failed to match specific user search intents.
Disconnect between real-time warehouse data and active campaign budgets.
High warehouse overhead costs from slow-moving product variations.
The Solution
How we turned it around.
Predictive Modeling for Spend Optimization
We built a predictive analytics framework that analyzed historical sales velocity, consumer search volume, and market trends. This model identified which underperforming or overstocked SKUs had the highest probability of conversion if supported by paid advertising. By identifying these opportunities, we routed budget to high-probability keywords, ensuring ad spend worked toward clearing warehouse surpluses while maintaining a strong ROAS.
What we shipped
- Built a predictive model in BigQuery to evaluate SKU conversion likelihood.
- Analyzed seasonal search volume patterns to forecast demand changes.
- Shifted budgets dynamically to high-value, under-promoted search queries.
- Maintained efficiency by avoiding high-cost, saturated keywords.
Inventory-Aware Campaign Restructuring
To resolve uneven inventory sell-through, we built a data pipeline connecting the client's inventory management system to Google and Meta Ads. We established automated campaign rules that adjusted bids based on stock levels. When a SKU exceeded target warehouse levels, the system automatically increased its ad budget; conversely, if a SKU was running low, the system scaled down bidding to prevent out-of-stock clicks.
What we shipped
- Created custom API connectors between inventory databases and ad accounts.
- Automated daily bid increases for overstocked, high-margin products.
- Built automatic pause triggers for low-stock items to eliminate waste.
- Structured campaigns by SKU to enable precise, product-level budget control.
Dynamic SKU-Level Creative Assets
To support the newly targeted campaigns, we developed a fast-turnaround creative engine. We produced a library of SKU-specific ad creatives, tailoring visual assets and copywriting to highlight the specific benefits of each infant formula variation (e.g., sensitive stomach, organic ingredients). This targeted content addressed the specific needs of parents while reinforcing brand safety and trust, crucial factors in the infant formula space.
What we shipped
- Designed modular ad templates for rapid SKU-specific graphic variations.
- Wrote benefits-focused copywriting addressing parent concerns and infant health.
- Created custom product videos highlighting ingredients and quality.
- Improved relevance and CTR across search and social channels.
The Numbers
Outcomes we can talk about.
The predictive and inventory-aware campaign structure delivered excellent results. Within 90 days, sales for underperforming SKUs rose by 67%, clearing warehouse surpluses and stabilizing supply chains. Despite the increased complexity of managing individual SKU campaigns, the brand maintained an average ACoS of 22% (equivalent to an efficient 4.5x ROAS), exceeding their initial targets.
By trusting the predictive model, the marketing team increased budget allocation to high-probability SKUs from 6% to 35% of total spend. The shift to highly relevant, SKU-specific creative assets also paid off, driving a 22% improvement in CTR across active campaigns. This verified that parents respond far better to ads that address their specific infant nutrition needs rather than generic brand messaging.
22%
Average ACoS maintained (~4.5x ROAS)
+67%
Underperforming SKU sales
35%
Ad spend to top SKUs
+22%
CTR from SKU-specific assets
What We Built
What's Next
Expanding inventory-aware bidding to regional retail partners.
Following the success of the digital ad-inventory integration, we are expanding the predictive model to support retail partners. The goal is to align regional digital campaigns with physical store inventory levels at major retail chains, pushing localized ad spend to regions with high stock of specific infant formula SKUs.
We are also upgrading our data pipeline to ingest broader supply chain signals, such as ingredient sourcing schedules and shipping delays, ensuring that advertising spend responds dynamically to the entire product lifecycle from manufacture to purchase.
Frequently Asked Questions
About This Project
The questions teams usually ask when they want to run a similar engagement.
A predictive PPC model analyzes historical sales, search volume, and market trends to estimate the conversion probability of specific products, allowing advertisers to allocate budget to the most profitable opportunities.
The Real Numbers
Need real numbers? Let's talk.
We kept the names off the page. The story is real, the outcomes are real, and we're always happy to walk a serious team through the rest of it.
Start a Conversation→More from Marketing
Reducing ACoS and Scaling Sales for an Amazon Seller
Scaling B2B Lead Generation for an Electrical Equipment Exporter
Boosting Conversion: A 22% ROAS Lift for a Global Luxury Beauty Leader
Insights from our blog
Digital MarketingAI Marketing Analytics for Cross-Channel Attribution: The Complete Guide (2026)
Did you know that the average buyer interacts with six to eight channels before converting? The buyer might discover a brand through a YouTube pre-roll, research it on Google, click a retargeting ad on Instagram, open a nurture…
Digital MarketingOrganic vs Paid Social Media: Which Works Better in 2026?
Brands spent $234 billion on social media advertising in 2024. Yet organic reach on most platforms continues to decline. The result is a growing question...
Digital MarketingSocial Media Marketing Trends 2026: What Brands Need to Know
Want to hear something incredulous?Over 5.2 billion people worldwide now use social media. Yes, you read that right. And the average person bounces between nearly...